AU mediators reach Urugwiro, the IMF signs off, inflation hits 15.7% and Bugesera passes 14% built.

Rwanda spent the week talking to almost everyone. African Union mediators flew from Goma to Kigali to meet President Kagame, Kigali signed 22 agreements with Kenya and Senegal, and the IMF gave the economy a clean report card. Underneath the diplomacy, two pressures kept building: fighting resumed in Masisi across the border, and prices are rising faster than at any time in three years. The question for the rest of the year is which of those pressures reaches Kigali first.

What happened. A panel of three former presidents, Uhuru Kenyatta, Mokgweetsi Masisi and Sahle-Work Zewde, met AFC/M23 leader Corneille Nangaa in Goma on Oct 5, Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe on Oct 6 and President Paul Kagame at Village Urugwiro on Oct 7. In Goma the panel called for strict respect of the ceasefire, good faith in the Doha process and unhindered humanitarian access. Kinshasa is the next stop.

Why it matters. This is the most senior in-person mediation on eastern DRC in months, and it lands as the Washington and Doha tracks stall. Fighting resumed around Ngungu and Kasaki in Masisi on Oct 7, per Actualite.cd, and the same day AFC/M23 called the situation in Minembwe "intolerable" and said it now sees "armed liberation" as necessary. The sequencing question has not moved: Kigali wants the FDLR neutralized, while Kinshasa is promoting a disarmament and cantonment protocol that Kigali disputes. A Washington Accords planning conference is due later this month to produce a revised operations order.

IMF staff reached agreement on the first review of Rwanda's Extended Credit Facility on Oct 6, unlocking about $35.7 million once the Fund's board signs off in December. All end-June targets were met, growth ran at 9.7% in the first half, and mission chief Albert Touna Mama called implementation "satisfactory".

The harder number is inflation: 15.7% in August against a 5% medium-term target, with transport up 24.2% and housing and fuel up 20.4%. On Oct 8 the National Bank of Rwanda told reporters it now expects inflation to average 13.9% this year, and disclosed that it has been buying gold for its reserves since July last year. The amount comes in its annual report to Parliament, due by Oct 31. That detail ran only in Kinyarwanda this week.

Burundi's security minister Léonidas Ndaruzaniye said people coming from or passing through AFC/M23-held areas, including UN staff working there, will not be allowed into the country. Rwandan outlets also report arrests of Banyamulenge in Burundi, based on unnamed sources.

The border itself has been closed by Gitega since January 2024. Yet Rwandan exports to Burundi reached $13.4 million in the second quarter, more than double the first, routed through Tanzania (NISR via Taarifa). With Burundian troops in South Kivu's highlands and M23 now threatening Minembwe, this is the border where a regional incident is most likely.

The new Bugesera International Airport, 60% owned by Qatar Airways, is 14.48% complete and now builds around the clock, according to Finance Minister Yusuf Murangwa and the infrastructure ministry. The target is 75.4% by June 2027 and opening at the end of 2027 or early 2028. IMF staff visited the site, and the Fund is asking Rwanda to choose large externally financed projects carefully.

The airport is also the reason Rwanda's Formula One bid keeps surfacing. RacingNews365, relayed by IGIHE, reports talks are at an advanced stage for a 2030 calendar slot and a permanent circuit about 40 km from Kigali near Bugesera, with an announcement possible before year-end. Neither F1 nor the government has confirmed it.

Rwanda and Kenya signed 11 instruments at their joint commission in Nairobi on Oct 5-6, including mutual legal assistance and prisoner transfer, and discussed refined fuel imports along the Northern Corridor. A day later Rwanda and Senegal signed 11 agreements at their first joint commission in Kigali, alongside a business forum.

The Kenya numbers explain the urgency: Rwanda imported more than $398 million from Kenya in 2025 and sold it just $5.3 million. Fuel is the other thread. A 40,000-tonne refined fuel cargo for Rwanda reached Mombasa on Sep 29, and with transport inflation at 24.2%, the corridor is a price story as much as a diplomatic one.

■  Village-level elections run Oct 24, cells Oct 31 and sectors Nov 7, renewing the whole grassroots administration (NEC via Taarifa).

■  The coup-plot trial of opposition figure Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza continued with the defense phase on Oct 1, 8 and 9 (IGIHE, Kinyarwanda).

■  The national ID agency suspended photo capture for the new e-ID with no restart date. More than 7 million people had been photographed by August (IGIHE).

■  Parliament approved a €17 million World Bank IDA loan for the Digital Acceleration Project (Taarifa).

■  Between 316 and 369 returnees crossed from DRC this week, depending on the outlet, adding to more than 7,000 since January 2025 (Taarifa, Imvaho Nshya).

■  Kenya reported its first Ebola case linked to the DRC outbreak. Rwanda's health ministry says no case has been detected here, and we found no new statement this week (MoH).

■  Belgium and Rwanda restored diplomatic ties on Sep 22, with embassies to reopen under chargés d'affaires (Brussels Times).

■  Bank of Kigali says it is the first bank in Rwanda to join China's CIPS yuan payment system as a direct participant (Financial Afrik, French).

■  Almonty and the state formed a 75/25 tungsten venture covering about 32 km² at Shyorongi, Rulindo (IGIHE).

■  The Amavubi climbed nine places in the FIFA ranking. The Rwanda Basketball Cup tipped off Oct 9 and a revamped handball league starts Oct 10 (New Times, IGIHE).

BNR National Bank of Rwanda, the central bank · NISR National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, which publishes inflation and trade data · ECF Extended Credit Facility, an IMF lending program for low-income countries · MINECOFIN Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning · AFC/M23 Rebel alliance that controls parts of eastern DR Congo · FDLR Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, an armed group based in eastern DR Congo · RSE Rwanda Stock Exchange · IDA International Development Association, the World Bank's fund for the poorest countries

■  IMF. Staff-level agreement on the first ECF review, about $35.7m on board approval in December. The full arrangement is SDR 185.031m, about $250m over 38 months (Rio Times).

■  BNR gold. The central bank is adding gold to reserves. Size undisclosed until the annual report to Parliament, due by Oct 31.

■  Commercial debt. A EUR 82m and JPY 15bn loan closed in August carries World Bank Group guarantees, a 15-year tenor and 6 years of grace (MINECOFIN).

■  Mining. Trinity Metals still targets a New York listing raising $100-200m within 12-18 months of May (Reuters via Kitco). The Almonty tungsten venture is signed, processing plant later.

■  Concessions. Cabinet approved a supplemental DP World concession for Kigali Logistics Platform Phase II and Rubavu cold storage, and a Chery EV assembly agreement (Sep 18 communiqué).

■  US sanctions baseline. No new designations this week. Treasury's March action on the RDF and June action on Gasabo Gold Refinery still frame any US-linked minerals deal.

The mountain gorilla count has risen to 1,063, with 459 of them in Uganda's Bwindi, per the Nile Post. For Rwanda it is also a business number. The communities around Volcanoes National Park live alongside that population, and the EIB signed €65 million for their resilience in August.

That's the week. Back next Friday. Reply to this email, we read everything. And if Cameroon is on your radar, our sister edition Kilwa Cameroon publishes the same day.

Kilwa Rwanda · Friday, October 9, 2026 · Vol. 1 · No. 1 · Week 41

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Kilwa Rwanda is produced by the Kilwa Research team from sources in English, Kinyarwanda, French and Swahili. Figures carry their source and date, and unconfirmed reports are labeled. Kilwa Technologies is a research and data company, not an investment adviser. Nothing here is investment, legal or tax advice. kilwa.io